World Cup 2026 — Probability Heatmap

Worldcup by mycoolself · Updated 2026-06-21 16:30 UTCCached data

Showing cached probabilities from 2026-06-20. Live API credits are reserved for scheduled snapshot refreshes, up to four times daily. No prior snapshot exists yet, so colors compare against an even field baseline until the next snapshot is captured.

Tile size = chance to win the World CupColor = change vs baselineSections = group (A–L)
−3pp
+3pp
GROUP A
3.8%
GROUP B
2.2%
GROUP C
13.9%
GROUP D
3.9%
GROUP E
7.1%
GROUP F
7.1%
GROUP G
5.4%
GROUP H
12.0%
GROUP I
11.9%
GROUP J
12.0%
GROUP K
9.9%
GROUP L
10.6%

Probabilities are shown for informational and entertainment purposes only and may not reflect live market prices. Changes are calculated from our own cached snapshot or baseline comparison. This site is not a sportsbook, does not accept wagers, and does not provide gambling, financial, or investment advice.

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Get big probability moves before your friends do.
Optional alerts for major map moves. — visits tracked.
Biggest mover: BRA +8.8pp

World Cup 2026 probabilities, visualized like a stock market

The World Cup 2026 Probability Heatmap is a live, finviz-style market-implied probability map of the FIFA World Cup. Every national team is a tile. Tile size shows the team's current implied probability of winning the tournament. Tile color shows how that probability changed versus the prior snapshot or initial baseline — green = probability rising, red = probability falling. Teams are grouped into the 12 official tournament groups (A–L).

Frequently asked questions

Where do the probabilities come from?
Market prices are converted into implied probabilities, averaged across available data sources, and normalized to sum to 100% so the market margin is removed.
What does the color mean?
Each tile is colored by the change in win probability versus the previous day's snapshot when available, or versus the initial baseline before a prior snapshot exists. Changes are measured in percentage points (pp). Full saturation is reached at ±3pp, the same scale finviz uses for its S&P 500 sector map.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?
The largest tile on the map is the current favorite. Because probabilities move every day, the answer changes — check the heatmap above for the live ranking and the day's biggest mover.
How often does the heatmap update?
The public heatmap reads cached snapshots. The paid upstream odds API is reserved for scheduled refreshes, up to four times daily, to protect usage credits.
When and where is the 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup runs June 11 – July 19, 2026, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with 48 teams competing in 12 groups (A–L).